purple elephants

Tuesday, October 6, 2009

Purple Elephants

Let’s face it, the guy to the left is either a brilliant actor or is actually batshit insane. Lucky for the rest of the world, the people tugging on his strings aren’t quite as brash and reactionary to openly call for the eradication of entire countries. There was a time when I believed, mostly out of spite for the Bush administration, that Iran’s nuclear program was in fact purely for peaceful purposes. Once I pulled my head out of my red liberal ass though, reasons why Iran would not be working on “the bomb” became pretty fucking slim. That being said, I really don’t think we have much to worry about in that department.

Lets first start with the Ayatollahs at the top. Anyone who knows anything realized they are the true power holders in Iran. And if their relatively violent repression of supporters Mir Hussein Mousavi, a moderate reformist, this past summer are any indication they very much value their power and will do most anything to protect it from any threat, real or imaginary. Ahmadinejad can run around on camera and wave his dick in the face of the US and Israel, but really that’s all they’re going to let him do. Anything much more would be taking too much of a risk. Certainly if an Iranian nuclear weapon was used against Israel–directly by Iran or through a proxy like Hezbollah–it would mean the almost immediate end of the Islamic Republic, no question. While in this case the Ayatollahs would probably maintain some power over an insurgency or something like that, they would certainly have a lot less power and a lot less wealth than they do now.


So why then would Iran want a nuclear weapon if they’re not going to use it? While we’re at it, why does the United States still hang onto its nuclear weapons when we’re (probably) never going to use any of them? The UK? France? Russia? Simple, it’s a power broker. So few countries have nuclear weapons, it’s like an elite little club. And for some odd reason, the nations with weaponized nuclear capabilities tend to be taken more seriously on the world stage. How else is a middle-eastern Islamic theocracy fronted by a lunatic going to be heard in a world dominated by Judeo-Christian leaders backing American and European interests?

Even if you have a real problem with Iran having nuclear weapons, what are you going to do about it? Sanctions are a joke, we’ve been yelling at them since 1979 to no avail, and we demonize them daily in the media while all they do is reciprocate the civilian re-education with daily “Death To America” chants. Even nuclear non-proliferation treaties are a waste of time; India unabashedly violated every nonproliferation law on the books to develop their weapons program and they’re now one of America’s closest allies. Really the only thing you could do to stop the Iranian nuclear program at this point is bomb their facilities, which the US isn’t going to do. Enter Israel. They did it to Saddam Hussein’s nuclear program in the 1990’s, but then again Saddam, not having paranoid hyperconservatives to keep his insanity in check, was a much more credible threat than Ahmadinejad is. Considering Israel can be just as crazy as their neighbors though, who knows what will happen on that front.

Nobody can say for certain that Iran is or isn’t developing a nuclear weapon and nobody can say for certain that they will or will not use one provided they are developing one. International relations is an educated guessing game; you look at the facts and draw what seems to be the logical conclusion. Then again, sometimes your logical conclusion couldn’t be more wrong. Political scientists in the 1980s would have laughed in your face if you told them the Soviet Union would be no more by 1991 and it wouldn’t require a NATO invasion. But for the most part if you think enough about these things you can predict the future fairly accurately. Accurate enough to sleep easy at night, anyway. That being said, keeping the ruse of outrage at and unacceptability of an Iranian nuclear program is an important part of the game. It is in fact that game that makes us able to predict how things will go. The world we live in may be madness, but Sparta isn’t all its cracked up to be either.

68
Manifestos:


Nashe^
said…

This has been sitting in your mind for a while, hasn't it.


wigsf
said…

That's what Ringo Starr would look like if he wasn't fed.


Woozie
said…

Nashe: In one form or another, yeah. But mostly it flared up this past week.

wigsf: And if he were a bit crazier. Just a little though.


Rachel
said…

them book learnin' is doing you good, sonny.

I also just shrug my shoulders at the nuclear proliferation thing. yeah its something to watch out for and be cautious about, but like you said its a power broker, and i'm of the mind that it cant or shouldnt be suppressed. they are autonomous countries and have the right to have top notch weapons just like the rest of the in-crowd


eccentric recluse
said…

I don't know what to make of this mess, but I think that when these people get their hands on the bomb, (this also applies to the DPRK), it will be a lot like giving themselves a dose of cancer. All but the most clinically insane know that it cannot be used, and that it will come to control its owner rather than the other way around. In the short term, it will be terrifying, but if the region gets past that, a stable situation may emerge that could eventually stratify into something resembling peace or at least business as usual. Then they will have to figure out how to manage an economy that may have become dominated by an industrial complex that sucks up whatever revenues that oil brings in.

Then they will know what the term "Great Satan' really means…


BBC
said…

Take a 500 mg. tablet of fuckitall and go camping.


BBC
said…

That's what I do, with a couple of thirty packs of light beer of course.


Anonymous
said…

what are you talking about on this post?

and on the previous post, i couldnt help but notice your arrogance "i'm smart" "smarter than" etc …whatever happened to being humble these days??? OH WAIT…i forgot you consider yourself American.

-V


Omar
said…

Iran wants nuclear weapons for the same reason everyone else does; self-defense. Ahmadinejad can blather on all he wants about obliterating Israel, the fact remains he is not the commander-in-chief of Iran's armed forces and therefore would have no mandate to unleash a first strike. Every nation has the inherent right to protect and defend itself and Iran should not be viewed any differently. Once Israel obtained its own nuclear arsenal it was inevitable someone in the Arab world would follow suit. Get used to it.


billy pilgrim
said…

if yahweh has the bomb then allah should have the bomb.


Omar
said…

Exactly.


unokhan
said…

pretty cute bobbeh. you danced all over the place without stepping in dimona


Omar
said…

The two millennium old troubles that infect that particular piece of the world's geography takes obvious precedence over a 60 year old move that saw the creation of a Jewish State. I'll be branded anti-semitic for saying that, but to me it is an historical no-brainer. Create by force a Jewish state on Arab land? Yep, nobody saw that shit-storm coming. Again, get used to it. There is fuck all that is gonna change about it in our life times.


unokhan
said…

for the record, ahmadinejad does not call for the "eradication" of any country physically. what he and many others propose is the political destruction of the apartheid zionist state, and a reformation of governance to be decided by all the peoples in former palestine — a one state solution. this might result in an expulsion of the former rulers, or, as in the case of south africa, it might not.


Woozie
said…

Rachel: Well it seems evident that it can't be repressed; acquiring the materials isn't all that hard and you can look up how to assemble one online. But supporters of the NPT bring up a good point in that the more people who have such technology, the more likely it is some idiot will use it.

ER: Israel's possession of nuclear weapons didn't really do anything to stem the flow of violence in the so-called Holy Land; individual countries may be done trying to invade but all those pesky insurgent and terrorist groups are still there. I'll put money on business as usual.

BBC: I'm trying to avoid addiction in my sophomore year, kthx. Maybe next year.

V: I have no need to be humble when someone says tear gas fundamentally altered international relations from 1945 onward. When I'm obviously smarter than the idiots in my class, I have no problem shooting them down mercilessly when they say something offensively stupid.

Omar and BP: <3

Uno: In what capacity would I have mentioned Israel? The Jewish state introduces a whole 'nother layer of complexity that would have at least doubled the length of the post. And, at least to me, it's irrelevant to the point of the post which is we shouldn't give a fuck if Iran gets the bomb or not because a) nothing will probably change, and b) we can't stop them.

Omar: Man, I want to have your babies sometimes. Sometimes.

Uno: Well obviously he doesn't want to turn it into a crater, it's holy land and what not. I don't even think many hardliners would accept losing the Dome of the Rock as collateral damage in a greater nuclear annihilation of Jewland.


Omar
said…

Even if it's just sometimes, you'll still have to take a number.


Anonymous
said…

"V: I have no need to be humble when someone says tear gas fundamentally altered international relations from 1945 onward. When I'm obviously smarter than the idiots in my class, I have no problem shooting them down mercilessly when they say something offensively stupid."

i guess i understand you, i do that all the time.

To put it simply, Iran is just trying to bring balance to the force, preventing the U.S. from building the first galactic empire

And stop ridiculing my u.s.-hating brethren.

May the force be with all conservative minded, leftist heterosexuals.

-V


unokhan
said…

yo, bobbeh — how many jews live in iran?


Orhan Kahn
said…

Just so long as they don't call themselves Persians, I couldn't care less what they're doing. Aint shit gonna reach us here in Oz, we're too busy dealing with the New Zealand threat.


thimscool
said…

Omar, the struggle has been going on for a lot longer than 2000 years… I'm curious why you would stop at that date.

Also, we are still waiting for an Arab to declare as member of the nuclear club… the Iranians are Persians, and they would not take kindly to being labeled Arabs.

I would agree that Iran want the nukes for the same reason as anyone, and it is a fools errand to try to stop them. Look at N. Korea to see why this is so. The IAEA and non-proliferation in general is a farce.

Here's an interesting article.

Woozie, did you adapt this post from a homework assignment?


thimscool
said…

As Woozie pointed out, the only way to stop proliferation is a military strike, and the Israelis are a likely candidate. But they don't have any sound options that don't involve many transits of Iraqi air space, and that means that we must not only approve, but also take, at minimum, defensive action with spoiling attacks (to prevent mining of the gulf, for example).

If our relationship with Russia changes significantly (and also the Europeans relationship with Russia), then this becomes more possible. China remains an obstacle, but they can be placated given assurances of market access in the mid-term aftermath. They would probably rather see air strikes than sanctions.


Omar
said…

I think it is an accepted rule of thumb that the current difficulties in the Middle East basically coincide with the advent of Christianity's arrival 2,000 years ago. Go back a lot longer than that? OK sure, fill your boots, but how far back do you care to go? Doesn't your Christian dogma insist the entire world is only 6,000 years old? And yes, I realize the people of Iran are Persian, but I think including Iran as an integral player in the 'Arab' world is not beyond the realm of critical acceptance.


Woozie
said…

V: Sometimes it's too easy to ridicule you guys; there's plenty of reasons to hate the United States. Just pick a defendable one is all 🙂

Uno: Harretz tells me there's about 25,000 Jews are in Iran (and they're protected by the country's constitution). Why?

Orhan: Why can't Persians call themselves Persians?

And good luck with your New Zealander scourge.

thimscool: Close; adapted from a discussion in class. Strangely I don't get many homework assignments.

You bring up a good point about the Israelis needing to fly over Iraqi air space in order to get to Iran, but does that necessarily mean they'll need America's approval? Say they 'go it alone' and fly over Iraq en route to Iran either without letting CENTCOM know or in flagrant violation of US refusal. What are we going to do, shoot them down? I wouldn't put it past the IDF.


Omar
said…

God's Chosen Air Force flies where it wants. Any suggestion that suggests otherwise would (and will) be considered anti-semitic propaganda intended to undermine the State of Israel.


Fire Rabbit
said…

ignorance is bliss


thimscool
said…

Omar, Screw the dogma! The earth is around 5B yrs old, and the universe is around 15B yrs old, so it would seem.

But for all of recorded history that part of the world has been in contention.

The land of Israel was particularly important once there was significant Afro-Euro-Asian trade (and prior to the digging of the Suez). It was the jumping off and landing point for ships trading between South Asia and the countries of the Mediterranean. I'd go back at least 5000 years, given that we have some cultural, archaeological, and historical documentation. In any case, it's hardly fair to the jews to start counting just as they were dispossessed and scattered by the Romans.


thimscool
said…

Woozie, the US needs some kind of fig leaf to cover their acceptance. We're not talking about a squadron crossing over Iraq and making a fait accompli. We're talking many sorties, plus refueling if they want to get home safe.

There is no way the strike happens without diplomatic repercussions and consequences. The tone of those repercussions and the severity of the consequences will depend on the spin factor.


unokhan
said…

thims — it is charming when you use language like "the struggle" — it is so HIGH TEA.

bobby — don't ask rhetorical why's.

omar — i may soon be single. what's the rent for the turret…in the summer


Am lie
said…

lols. Ahmadinejad.

All that government cares about is their own self interest. Spending god knows ho much money on a nuclear program when they import [get_bloginfo]url[/get_bloginfo]/wp-content/themes/5u5bajbdbm4uxzamu6ekhz58198/files/2009/10/shit loads of petroleum. An oil rich company importing petroleum (at least I think it was petroleum. Might have translated that wrong).

Also, there's only one ayatollah.
Just saying 😉


BBC
said…

BBC: I'm trying to avoid addiction in my sophomore year, kthx. Maybe next year.

Pay attention you little idiot, I didn't say to become addicted to liquid prozac, just to use some to get through it all.


unokhan
said…

i've got a bat, who's got a blanket


Omar
said…

I had to laugh at "pay attention you little idiot" though..

In other news…

While I think Barack Obama's Nobel Peace Prize is a pretty ridiculous get for a man who has accomplished little but impress us with his soaring oratory skills, maybe it can be construed as a gift from the rest of us to y'all for electing a non-asshole for the first time since, um, since..hmmm, since Lincoln? Has it been that long? But will receipt of this reward help or hinder Obama domestically? Being loved by the rest of the world isn't exactly a quality you Yanks seem to admire in your leaders.


BrightenedBoy
said…

This post has been removed by the author.


BrightenedBoy
said…

I frankly don't understand why the mullahs don't keep him on a tighter leash. His fringe rantings can only alienate the rest of the world, depriving their country of valuable economic and military ties.

Then again, they could be hoping to pull a North Korea: the People's Democratic Republica begins the process of nuclear development every few years, exacts aid from the West in return for promises to disarm, then flagrantly violates the treaties and starts production again.

Perhaps the best thing the U.S. could do would be to let these countries develop their programs with full knowledge that any actual use of nuclear weapons would lead to the belligerent's annihilation.

With that huge bargaining chip gone, a lot of these Third World countries would be forced to come to the international table legitimately.

We've allowed them to behave like children for too long.


thimscool
said…

Bingo, BB.

It would also draw out the Europeans who drag their feet like they are doing us a favor when in fact it is they who are in greater jeopardy.


unokhan
said…

"We've allowed them to behave like children for too long."

white boy's burden, eh. aint it a bitch


Omar
said…

Do as we say, don't do as we do. Colonial mentalities die hard deaths.


thimscool
said…

Hogwash. How is it hypocrisy to tell them go ahead and develop nukes, but to be aware that using them means that we will annihilate them? It is the proper policy.

The "colonial" attitude is to tell them that they cannot have anymore food and gasoline unless they stop developing nukes. Is that what you are advocating, Omar? A continuation of our current policy? If so, then you are confused.

And as for you, Uno, I guess you'd say that the N. Koreans have behaved like sensible adults…

White boy's burden? How about "bitter commie's tantrum".


Omar
said…

Iran is a nation surrounded on all sides by nuclear capable belligerents. The Russians to the north, the Israelis to the west, the Pakistanis to east and your own US Navy anchored off its southern flank. If there is any nation on earth more deserving of a little piece of mind in the form of nuclear deterrence I'd say Iran qualifies. Lay off the red, white and blue Kool-Aid, Thimscool, it dulls your sensibilities.


thimscool
said…

Try reading what I said before you throw stones from your glass bunker, Omar.

I said, don't try to stop them from acquiring nukes, ya dingleberry. Nonproliferation via diplomacy and sanctions cannot work. Let deterrence prevail.

How am I drinking the kool-aid? It seems more like you're drinking bongwater.


Josh
said…

I submit, for humble addition to the Tome:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2BM8WJu6ySo


Omar
said…

Alrighty then, Thimscool, I'm with ya..

Bomb bomb bomb bomb bomb Iran.

I mean, your country gets it right so often, you must be right. Right?

Schlemiel, schlemazel, hasenfeffer incorporated..


unokhan
said…

as mark twain showed, you don't have to be a commie to synthesize a cogent analysis of imperialism.

but it helps


BBC
said…

Bomb the whole fucking planet into a wasteland, that will pretty much solve the problems with mankind.

Without that it will just always be the same old shit. But it goes well with some booze and at times even helps us get laid.


Gadfly
said…

"But for the most part if you think enough about these things you can predict the future fairly accurately. Accurate enough to sleep easy at night, anyway. That being said, keeping the ruse of outrage at and unacceptability of an Iranian nuclear program is an important part of the game. It is in fact that game that makes us able to predict how things will go. The world we live in may be madness, but Sparta isn't all its cracked up to be either."

Wow… You are SO not a 16-year-old kid anymore *laughing*

*tipping hat*


thimscool
said…

Right, Uno. Just try telling that to someone from the east block.

And let me know when you've got that cogent thing down.


thimscool
said…

Omar, why would you (or I) want us to bomb Iran?

I'm not advocating that the Israeli's should do this and that we should help them. I'm just pointing out that they could not do it without our involvement and permission, and as such there will be consequences for our Nobel Peace Prize winning president.


thimscool
said…

Has a Canadian ever won the NPP?


Omar
said…

I'm not sure. Probably. I think an old Nova Scotian may have won it the other day.


Omar
said…

Yep, here it is. One of the fathers of digital photography or something. A little more positive then a man at war with two countries winning a peace prize. Which of course is absurd.


thimscool
said…

I was actually asking about the peace prize, specifically.

If they gave it to Arafat, they'll give it to anyone. Nelson Mandela he wasn't.


thimscool
said…

Yo Wooz! We've done this one to death.

How about a post on abstaining from absinthe?


Am lie
said…

I love how it took them 40 years to give the "father of photography" a NPP and it took Obama less than a year in office to win one. Awesome.


Frank Beans
said…

where is the little fag that runs this place anyway? place aint the same wit out him


unokhan
said…

yo, ronnie, the taliban you financed in the 80's are dancing on yer grave old boi and spittin on it too. ain't it a bitch when the kids are so ungrateful


BBC
said…

Omar, why would you (or I) want us to bomb Iran?

On any given day I'm all for bombing Iran, or America.


YELLOWDOG GRANNY
said…

oh sweety..he's batshit crazy.


Orhan Kahn
said…

What in the fuck is going on here?!


unokhan
said…

sweety? SWEETY?

o lawd jeezus chile o mary


unokhan
said…

old people should be forbidden use of the internet. and i volunteer me first


Omar
said…

nyuck, nyuck, nyuck..


Gadfly
said…

Who are you calling old?

OMG STFO Uno

I'll roll my 20-sided die at you. Don't make me go all Warcraft up in this motherfucker.

Granny: Can I borrow some acne cream? I'm all out.


Gadfly
said…

Has Woozie done got the H1N1?


unokhan
said…

will ya still need me, will ya still feed me


Omar
said…

On this most special of days, I'm on a boat, motherfuckers, don't you ever forget.


Anonymous
said…

Wooz must've found himself some seriously righteous cock.


unokhan
said…

bunny, this one's for you

http://misteringo.deviantart.com/art/Bunnies-Do-Scream-41828873?moodonly=1


Lifehiker
said…

Hey, Woozie, just wanted you to know that I still check in from time to time.

This post was perceptive. Keep up the good thinking!

Are you back in Ohio this semester? I guess there is an island of acceptance in that ocean of prejudice.